The Eyjafjallajökull volcano first began to erupt in March of this year but it was not until its second, more dramatic eruption in April that we saw the unprecedented move to shut large swathes of European airspace due to the dangerous volcanic ash that it was spewing high into the atmosphere.

Globalisation reliant on air travel

This loss of air travel has certainly highlighted how reliant we are on modern air transport and the degree to which it facilitates the level of globalisation we have come to expect. We have effectively been transported back in time to an age when flying was unknown and the main forms of transport were sea and road.

The halt of UK and European air travel has left thousands of people stuck in limbo, unable to come or go, stranded where the pause button deemed fit. Many businesses and business people have also been affected, unable to get back from holidays or business trips, struggling to import or export much needed goods, and unable to attend important meetings abroad.

Global Implications

The extent of the disruption has not only been felt in the UK and Europe but also worldwide.

Yesterday, Nissan suspended production at two of its factories in Japan due to the fact that it could not get hold of crucial air pressure sensors.

Kenya’s economy faces devastating losses as it “haemorrhag[es] $1.3m a day in lost [flower] shipments to Europe” and “there is no diversionary market [as] flowers and courgettes are not something the average Kenyan buys.”

Fujitsu has temporarily suspended exports of notebook computers to Europe and has been unable to say how long its European stocks will last or how much it stands to lose if the disruption continues.

The UK premiere of Iron Man 2 has been moved to Los Angeles, and many sporting, music, movie and other entertainment events face schedule changes and disruption.

Not to mention of course, the financial impact upon European airlines and tour operaters, with the International Air Transport Association stating that losses in the European airline industry had reached £165m a day.

Business continuity

The complete lack of European flights has certainly reinforced the need for business continuity planning.

Stephen Cross, CEO of Aon Global Risk Consulting, observed that “as economies contract or competition increases, lean manufacturing becomes the name of the game… Such an approach might be highly efficient when things are running smoothly, but in the event of a major disruption event such as this, it can lead to significant delays in key materials and inputs being delivered, or in a worst case scenario to a systemic failure in your supply chain” (Continuity Central).

As the volcanic disruption has highlighted though, it is not only suppy chains and operations that can be affected.  With many business owners, directors, managers and staff stranded, a business also needs to be able to continue in the absence of its people.

Not only that, but as the plight of the airlines emphasizes, a business also needs to have contingency plans in place for times when the very service it provides cannot be delivered.  As Jan Husdal rightly pointed out, “a flight is not something you can produce and stock somewhere. It is produced and instantly consumed at the same time… Without passengers and without flights, no airline can survive.”

Yet, in A Decade of Living Dangerously – The Business Continuity Managment Report (produced only a year ago, in March 2009) The Chartered Management Institute reported that (of the businesses they surveyed and received responses from) only 52% had specific business continuity plans covering their operations and that generally managers within organisations remained complacent about continuity.

Obviously there are some eventualities that are almost impossible to predict and therefore to plan for – the black swans of this world – but that is not to say that we should not be building robustness into our businesses and systems now.

Have you been able to run your business without access to flights?

What would happen if other transport systems were unavailable to you?  Does your business have alternative transport plans in place?

Were you or any of your staff stranded by the flight disruptions?

If you have not experienced any disruption, have you designed your business in such a way that it could continue in your absence, should you ever be stranded in the future?

Can you and your staff access emails, documents and telephone services remotely if you are unable to get to the office?

Although the impact of the volcanic ash disruptions is expected to be relatively low in Europe, (RBS has predicted an impact on GDP in Europe of 0.1%), history warns that we are not necessarily out of the woods yet.  According to the Telegraph, the last time Eyjafjallajökull erupted (in the early 1820s) it blew intermittently for 14 months and on each occassion of its previous eruptions it has been followed within months or a year or so by a major eruption at Katla (a nearby volcano that is known to be more violent).  Presently there are no ground rumblings at Katla and the conditions that have led to the unprecendented closures of air space are rare, but this event has very much highlighted the vital and urgent need for business continuity planning. Without it you risk the future well being of your business.

There are only 5 ways you can increase your profits…and not all of them are created equal!

Here are the only 5 ways you can increase your profits:

1. Raise your prices
2. Lower your direct costs
3. Fix the underperformers
4. Increase volume
5. Lower your overheads

And the winner is…

We looked at each of the five methods of increasing profit, and looked at how effective they each were. In reality, increasing your prices is by far the most effective way of increasing your profits.

Let me give you an example:

If you sell a widget at £100, with a cost of sale of £70, this creates £30 gross profit
However, if you reduce the price by just 10%, and sell it at £90, with the same cost of sale of £70, this only creates £20 gross profit.

Therefore, you would have to sell 50% MORE widgets just to make the same amount of profit you had been previously.

So, raising prices has the opposite effect. Sell at £110, less cost of sale £70 = £40 gross profit. A 33% increase in gross profit.

The counter argument is that, based on the supply and demand curve, you would expect to sell fewer widgets if you are charging a higher price, therefore making less money. The bit about selling fewer is true; the bit about less money depends on the demand curve. There is more profitable flex in this than you might imagine.

Say you sold 100 widgets at £100 making a total gross profit of £3000 (£30 profit on each widget x 100), then increased your prices to £110. You would now only need to sell 75 widgets to make the same profit (£40 profit on each widget x 75 =£3000), resulting in less work (and therefore overheads) for the same amount of money.

In addition, it is likely that your ‘worst’ customers are also the most price sensitive and will take up the majority of your time.

So, let me put it this way…

If you would like to work less, earn the same, and get rid of your least favourite customers… consider putting your prices up!

You can then spend the time you have saved looking for new, higher paying customers. When you have found these new customers and returned to selling 100 widgets, you will now be making £4000 profit instead (an extra £1000).

The only proviso is to be aware of demand sensitivity: if your business’ particular demand curve is very price sensitive (for example, if you were raise to prices by 10%, you would lose over 25% of your customers) you will then end up making less money, not more. That said, this sensitivity may be counteracted by upgrading your branding, customer service, or product/service differentiators to justify the price increase and thereby retain more existing customers. Raising your prices might mean raising your game, but then when has that ever been a bad thing?!

And finally, what about the other 4…?

The other 4 listed above are also very valid. Robert Craven suggests you work down in order, from 1 to 5. Implement each element and then move onto the next. By working in order, you ensure that you start with those that will have the most impact on your business’ profitability.

So, why not consider giving it a go!

However, the challenge remains that, even if the strategies or solutions a business has employed have been effective, they operate in a world of constant change. As a result, something that used to work won’t necessarily carry on working. Something that works well at the moment will reach a point of needing new strategies and new solutions.

Whilst it can be hard to face the fact that something might not be working as well as it once did, the sooner the reality is faced, the sooner changes can be made to improve the situation and restore your business to its position of excellence.

At the beginning of 2010, could you challenge yourself to take an honest look at your business or department? Is it the best it could be? What could work better? And how can you make your business even better for your staff, your customers and yourself?

It might sound like a strange statement but could it be true? I am not saying that a recession is something to look forward to, nor am I saying that it is not without its considerable uncertainties or risks. However, there may be opportunities available that would normally be out-of-reach in a stable marketplace.

Here are some opportunities to look out for…

1. Increase your market share. If you keep marketing and working on building your business when everyone else is running scared, you could capture a much larger share of the market than would otherwise have been possible.
2. Use the external pressure to develop a highly efficient and effective business. Use the economic pressure as an incentive to re-assess processes and systems thereby cutting out wastage and inefficiencies; this will enable you to cut costs and deliver a more efficient and effective business. However, ensure you continue to build strong customer service into your processes and don’t cut down at the cost of your product or service quality.
3. Look for opportunities to diversify into new markets thereby spreading your risk and increasing your revenue. This doesn’t necessarily mean expensive new product development. Could your product be sold in new markets you haven’t tried before with a little bit of re-positioning? Maybe you have the skills to offer new services with very little effort? It may just add a little stability to your business. Be careful about the more risky moves. I’m not saying they’re not worth considering but don’t jeopardise your existing business for the sake of a riskier alternative.
4. Buy your competitor’s assets if they go into liquidation. Select your competitors carefully, but making an offer for selected assets, such as their customer list or any intellectual property they may own, could be an opportunity that only comes up once in a lifetime. Think about this in advance: pick them now, then keep an eye on them. Companies House offers a monitoring service for £0.50 a year per company so you will get an email about any documents are filed by your competitors. You could also set up Google Alerts.

Fighting to survive

Often ‘fighting to survive’ is understood as working in the same way as usual, only harder. Working harder, selling more, but without fundamental change to the way in which this is done. And, in the current economic climate, whilst trying to do all this on a cost-cutting budget.

Sadly for many businesses this doesn’t work and the approach actually damages the business rather than helping it. Fighting to survive, without change, releases very little, if any, untapped potential within the business.

The Darwinian Approach explains why this is the case.

The weakest businesses in a marketplace struggle to survive. Even without a changing environment, we still see natural selection in action: the weakest businesses die or are killed by predators/competitors.

An unchanging business in a changing environment dies. Businesses operate in an always changing environment. Most of the time businesses can get away with slow evolution, or in a strong market, not evolving at all. However, when a market changes rapidly it often isn’t enough to do that. Nor is it enough to just fight by doing the same things as the business has always done.

So, how can we use the Darwinian approach to create a new strategy for survival?

1. Survival of the fittest: building a strong business. A business is the sum of its parts: its people; its processes; its product/services; its culture; its financial position; its marketing; its customers etc.. The business needs to be strong to survive. Some are already strong; but all can be stronger.
2. Design your business for evolution and change. A strong business is always growing, always developing and always moving forwards – in every area. If a business isn’t doing this, it’s going backwards. This is often about the culture of the corporation, and about the leadership who drives the movement. There does need to be someone in the centre who has the authority and ability to sponsor change – without that there is no permission for the organisation to change. It is about designing and building an organisation with the cabability to change. If this isn’t happening already, change is possible: it won’t be an easy journey but it is vital for survival.
3. Understand the changing environment. Awareness of what is going on around you and enough distance and awareness to make intelligent decisions about how it will effect your business is critical. It requires looking ahead and around, then taking space to think, consider and understand. Only then can you respond.
4. Respond: strategy and implementation. Strategy can be developed only from taking a holistic view internally and externally and deciding on a waypoint (it’s not a destination as you never actually stop journeying). Implementation comes from understanding the implications of that strategy and planning your journey, being ready to react and revise along the way. Without effective implementation there is no movement or change.

In the present economic climate, as markets change in unprecedented ways, adaptation of businesses to the environment is vital. Without adaptation, re-positioning, understanding the changing environment and reacting accordingly, businesses will struggle to survive. Business evolution is paramount.

So, how should you respond? Do you know how you can make your business stronger and more competitive and therefore better able to deal with a recession? Markets shrink in a recession so where there were lots of people wanting and willing/able to pay for your product or service before, there are now less people able to purchase what you have to offer. That means you are going to have to change your strategy to win the remaining customers and fight off your competitors.

Here are 5 steps to prepare your business for a recession…

1. Plan for the future
   Don’t just meander along hoping for the best – plan! Your business will work best if you know where you are trying to go and what you are trying to achieve in the next 3-5 years. It doesn’t have to be a long, detailed or ‘impressive’ strategy, but it does require thought!
2. Draw up an action plan on how to get there
   You will need decide on short, medium and long term actions out of the strategy you drew up. These are specific actionable things that you can start working on, starting immediately. There will be both big things that you can do to improve (break these down into manageable parts) and also lots of little things. Don’t forget to prioritise.
3. Forecast your money
   Prepare a 3-year financial forecast or get someone to do it for you (like your accountant). Add in your costs and expected benefits from the action plan above. Even with a positive economy businesses often over-estimate sales, so be careful. Try cutting your revenue in half and see what it looks like; how would respond if that actually happened? Try cutting it in half again. Keep updating it monthly so you can see where you are against your plan. This will give you early warning of when you might run into problems. If things get really tight, then move from a monthly cashflow forecast to a weekly one, and watch your money like a hawk. When you see a problem do something about it in advance – don’t just wait for it to hit you!
   
4. Spend time working on your business not in it
   In order to implement your plan you will need to starting working on your business. It’s the difference between say, restoring and renovating a house and just cleaning it. It can be hard work and uncomfortable knocking walls out, getting a plasterer in etc. but you end up with a much better house at the end of it. Don’t fall into the trap of just doing continual maintenance work when  actually there is significant change that needs to happen. Don’t get me wrong, maintenance is important but it won’t significantly push your business forward. Your business needs to be the best it can be in every area. If you don’t have time to do this, then you either need to make time or find someone to work with you to implement the action plan.
5. Don’t stop marketing, just do it better
   As things start looking tight many companies start to reduce their marketing budgets. Proceed with caution on this one. You should do a separate 12-month marketing plan that links into both your strategy and your general business action plan. You might not know how effective your current marketing actually is; measuring its effectiveness can be hard but certainly not impossible. Marketing shouldn’t just be seen as a cost – it should bring in more business in monetary terms over the year than you spend on it. It is worth noting there are no silver bullets when it comes to marketing; it is about a consistent, focused approach in line with your branding and strategy (hence the plan!). By all means, put your marketing effort under the microscope and work to make it more effective, but don’t just cut it to cut costs; there is a real danger that you’ll end up cutting yourself off from your life blood – your customers!

Though it would seem that there are difficult times ahead, don’t panic and don’t give up. Times like these can actually be a real opportunity. Whilst you might worry about what is just around the corner, the fact that you are looking at what you can do about it now puts you in a much stronger position than most. This could be your opportunity to build a stronger, more resilient organisation and to outshine and outperform your competitors.